Wall Street’s Top US Counties to Watch on Election Night

This compilation, while not comprehensive, highlights the key counties in seven critical swing states that are anticipated to play a decisive role in determining the election outcome.

Arizona

Home to more than half of Arizona’s population, Maricopa County, with its 4.5 million residents, is a crucial battleground for both presidential and Senate races in the United States. It’s particularly significant given its shift in the previous election.

In 2020, Biden became the first Democratic candidate to win Maricopa since President Harry Truman in 1948, as noted by Beacon. A strong showing by Harris here would significantly enhance her prospects in the state.

While the polls in Maricopa close at 9 p.m. ET, the reporting of results does not commence until about 10 p.m. ET. It has been reported by local media that counting all the ballots could take as long as 13 days, a delay similar to the 2020 elections when some media outlets took up to nine days post-election to confirm Biden’s victory, despite earlier projections by the Associated Press and Fox News.

Florida

Although Trump appears to lead Harris by nearly double digits in Florida, making it less of a battleground, Miami-Dade County remains a focal point. This county is the most populous in the state and is expected to report results shortly after the polls close at 7 p.m. ET.

Historically a Democratic stronghold since 2008, Miami-Dade saw a significant shift in 2020 when Biden’s lead narrowed to just seven points from Hillary Clinton’s 30-point victory in 2016. This trend poses a challenge for Harris, especially with the potential further decline in support among Hispanic voters in Miami, which could indicate trouble on a larger scale, as per Beacon’s analysis.

Goldman Sachs analysts have observed that the U.S. dollar showed a notable reaction to the 2020 Democratic performance in Miami-Dade, as investors adjusted their expectations regarding the election’s outcome.

Georgia

In Georgia, the focus is on DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett counties, urban areas where Biden secured substantial margins that contributed to his slim victory in the state during the 2020 election. Nearby Cobb County, showing increasing Democratic votes in recent presidential elections, and Fayette County to the south of Atlanta, are also considered indicative of broader electoral trends in the state.

With polls closing at 7 p.m. ET and early vote counting commencing at 7 a.m., Georgia might release results sooner than other states.

Michigan

Michigan’s Saginaw County has consistently predicted the state winner since 2008, with Biden narrowly carrying the state in the last election. Wayne County, encompassing Detroit, is another critical area. Biden won here by a significant margin in 2020, and any shift in this area could signal broader trends in Michigan.

Most polls in Michigan wrap up at 8 p.m. ET, and recent changes in state policies are expected to expedite the vote counting process.

Nevada

In Nevada, Biden’s narrow victory margin of less than 3 percentage points in 2020 highlights the importance of Clark County, which includes Las Vegas and comprises over half the state’s population. For Trump, reducing Democratic votes here is crucial. Washoe County, including Reno and the state’s second-largest county, is another area to watch, with Republicans aiming to make gains.

While the polls close at 10 p.m. ET, the extensive use of mail-in voting could delay some results.

North Carolina

Despite Democrats not winning North Carolina in presidential races since Obama in 2008, tight polling has once again made it a battleground state. Wake and Mecklenburg counties, hosting the largest cities and Democratic strongholds, are crucial for Harris. Suburban areas like Cabarrus County, adjacent to Charlotte, and other counties like Nash and New Hanover that flipped in 2020, are also key indicators.

Polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET, with early vote counting starting at 5 p.m. ET.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania was pivotal in securing Biden’s presidential win four days after Election Day in 2020. Erie County, a working-class region won by Trump in 2016 and barely by Biden in 2020, along with Northampton County, are seen as bellwethers. Trump’s performance in Bucks County, narrowly lost in the previous election, could also be decisive.

Scranton’s Lackawanna County, another working-class area and Biden’s birthplace, which has been leaning Republican, will be closely watched for voter turnout and preferences.

Polls in Pennsylvania close at 8 p.m. ET, but the state cannot start processing early ballots until 7 a.m. ET on Election Day, potentially delaying results.

Wisconsin

Biden secured over 75% of votes in Dane County in 2020, a trend Harris will need to continue to win Wisconsin. Waukesha County, traditionally a Republican stronghold now leaning Democratic, along with counties like Sauk and Door that flipped in the last election, are critical for gauging state-wide electoral shifts.

While polls close at 9 p.m. ET, delays are expected as early ballots are processed on Election Day, with Milwaukee’s results typically reported late into the night or early next morning.