As the 2024 presidential race heats up, a familiar debate is taking center stage: Is the U.S. economy stronger today under President Joe Biden, or was it in better shape during Donald Trump’s presidency? Both leaders claim credit for remarkable economic achievements, but a closer look at key metrics like growth, inflation, employment, and wages provides a clearer picture of how the economy has evolved under their respective administrations.
Economic Growth: A Tale of Two Recoveries
Both Trump and Biden presided over periods of notable economic growth, but the numbers tell a nuanced story. During Trump’s tenure (2017–2021), the U.S. economy experienced an average annual growth rate of 2.3%, despite the pandemic-induced downturn in 2020. Under Biden’s leadership, growth has continued at a similar pace, with an average rate of 2.2% so far.
The post-pandemic rebound has been a key driver for both administrations. In fact, the U.S. has seen the strongest recovery among G7 nations, with GDP levels surpassing pre-pandemic benchmarks. While both leaders can boast of guiding periods of growth, it’s worth noting that historical peaks—like the rapid economic expansion of the 1970s—surpass the averages seen during either presidency.
Real-Life Reflection
A small business owner in Chicago shared how federal relief funds during the pandemic helped keep her doors open. “We wouldn’t have made it without that support,” she said, highlighting the Biden administration’s American Rescue Plan as a critical factor in her recovery.
Inflation: The Elephant in the Room
Inflation has been one of the most contentious issues of Biden’s presidency. Prices surged dramatically during his first two years, peaking at 9.1% in June 2022, driven by pandemic-related supply chain disruptions and the ripple effects of the war in Ukraine.
While inflation has since cooled to around 3%, it remains above the levels seen when Trump left office. Food prices alone saw a staggering 13.5% increase in 2022, though the pace has slowed in recent months. Critics point to Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package as a contributing factor, arguing that the influx of cash overheated the economy.
Historical Context
It’s important to note that inflation levels above 9% were last seen in 1981, meaning Biden’s administration faced a rare and challenging economic environment. Comparatively, Trump’s term was marked by much lower inflation, though global conditions were vastly different at the time.
Employment: A Post-Pandemic Boom
One of Biden’s strongest talking points has been job creation. Since taking office, his administration has overseen the addition of nearly 16 million jobs, marking the fastest employment growth rate ever recorded by a U.S. president. Much of this rebound stems from the reopening of businesses shuttered during the pandemic, but the numbers are undeniable.
In contrast, Trump’s first three years saw 6.7 million jobs created, before the pandemic wiped out millions of positions in 2020. By the time Trump left office, unemployment had fallen back to 7%, a significant recovery from the pandemic’s peak. Under Biden, unemployment reached a 50-year low of 3.4% in January 2023, though it has since edged back up to 4.3%.
Expert Insight
Georgetown economist Mark Strain notes that “job recovery would likely have occurred under either administration,” but credits Biden’s policies, including the American Rescue Plan, for accelerating the pace of the rebound.
Wages: Rising, But Falling Behind Inflation
Both administrations saw increases in wages, but inflation has complicated the story. Under Trump, wages grew steadily, particularly during the first three years of his presidency. During Biden’s term, weekly earnings have continued to rise, but high inflation has eroded much of those gains. Adjusted for inflation, the average weekly wage is lower today than when Biden took office.
For many Americans, this translates to a feeling that their paychecks aren’t stretching as far, despite nominal wage increases. This sentiment has fueled ongoing debates about the broader impact of inflation on household budgets.
Financial Markets: Peaks and Valleys
Stock market performance often grabs headlines, but it’s not always indicative of the broader economy. Under Trump, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit record highs before plummeting during the pandemic. By the end of his term, markets had rebounded to pre-pandemic levels.
Under Biden, the stock market continued to climb, hitting new highs, though recent volatility has caused fluctuations. For Americans with retirement accounts or investments, these trends remain a critical barometer of economic confidence.
Conclusion: A Mixed Bag
Comparing the economic performance of the Trump and Biden administrations is no simple task. Both presided over unique challenges and successes, shaped by global events like the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts. While Trump touts his pro-growth policies and low inflation, Biden points to rapid job recovery and strong GDP growth.
Ultimately, the state of the economy depends on which metrics matter most to voters—and how they feel about their own financial situations. As the next election approaches, these economic debates will undoubtedly remain front and center.
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Olivia S. Bennett specializes in emerging trends and digital news. She has a sharp eye for spotting what’s buzzing and loves exploring the impact of new trends on American society. With her expertise in digital journalism, Olivia helps THE NORTHERN FORUM deliver a modern and dynamic perspective on today’s hottest topics.
